Geopolitical tensions could leave lasting changes in global trade, WTO chief says
The Middle East war and wider geopolitical tensions could permanently reshape global trade routes and supply chains, according to the WTO director-general.
AI-generated representative illustration of global trade routes adapting to geopolitical disruption; it does not depict a specific event. Image: MyNilgiris / OpenAI.
The Middle East war and wider geopolitical tensions could leave lasting changes in global trade routes and supply chains, World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.
Speaking to Reuters during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, she said companies are diversifying suppliers and routes to reduce risk. Some of those adjustments may remain even after conflicts ease.
Key points
- The WTO forecasts Middle East exports will contract 17% and imports 15% in 2026.
- Global merchandise trade volume is projected to grow 3.9% in 2026, up from the WTO’s 1.9% March baseline.
- Demand for AI-related products is supporting the stronger near-term forecast.
- The outlook remains uncertain because of wars, tariffs and the risk of renewed disruption.
Middle East trade could rebound if fighting subsides. However, Okonjo-Iweala said corporate moves toward alternative suppliers and shipping routes could produce more permanent changes in how goods move around the world.
Image disclosure: The world map and rerouted cargo ships are an AI-generated representative illustration created by MyNilgiris/OpenAI. It does not depict a specific event.
Verified sources
- Reuters — WTO chief sees lasting impact on trade from Middle East war and geopolitics (October 15, 2026)
- Associated Press — WTO raises 2026 global merchandise trade forecast to 3.9% (October 8, 2026)
- UN Media — WTO trade forecast update (official video and description)
Verification note: The assessment of lasting effects comes from the Reuters interview; the 3.9% forecast and its drivers were cross-checked against AP and UN Media coverage of the WTO update.
